## Bot4.usSome make their own luck. We use a robot. Predictions About Blog Contact Books Glossary Twitter Feed Site Map Terms of Service Disclaimer Leadership Team Current GMT Time 11 Currency Pairs: AUD/JPY AUD/USD EUR/AUD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CAD USD/CHF USD/JPY Some Big Caps: C XOM AAPL MSFT IBM T WMT JNJ PG ORCL GOOG PFE KO Some ETFs: SPY IWM QQQ GLD SLV XLE EFA FXI Some Options: C AAPL SPY GLD Backtested Longterm Predictions: Barrons |
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## Glossary## BotI use the term bot to describe software which copies fresh data from the internet at frequent intervals and then processes that data into more valuable data.Wikipedia has a definition which matches my idea of a bot: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_bot This site relies on the "DanBot" which copies fresh data from the internet every 5 minutes and then issues a set of near-future-price-predictions for many stocks and 11 currency pairs: http://bot4.us/predictions ## Scatter-plotWikipedia has a definition which matches my idea of a scatter-plot:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scatter_plot Visualization of a scatter-plot is useful for understanding the SVM Algorithm which is at the heart of the technology behind the DanBot. It is easy to see examples of scatter-plots at the URL below: http://www.google.com/search?q=scatter+plot Once you understand that a scatter-plot can be used to convey a dependence of a variable on the vertical axis to a variable on the horizontal axis, then you might ask, "How do I quantify the strength and direction of this dependence?" One answer to the above question is a statistical calculation called "Pearson's correlation" which I refer to as just "Correlation". ## CorrelationWikipedia has an article on Correlation:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_and_dependence When you look at a scatter-plot of many points you can usually detect the strength and direction of their correlation. For Earth, if you plotted distance from the equator on the horizontal axis and average temperature on the vertical axis, you would see a cluster of points which leans to the left. This scatter-plot describes the fact that as a thermometer moves away from the equator, it records cooler temperatures. This situation is an example of negative correlation. More examples of negative correlation are displayed at the URL below: http://www.google.com/search?q=negative+correlation If you want an example of positive correlation, create a scatter plot of average human height on the horizontal axis and average human weight on the vertical axis. This scatter-plot tells me that taller humans usually weigh more that shorter humans. Since the author of the scatter-plot has placed height on the horizontal axis, he/she is expressing the opinion that average weight depends on average height. Suppose I want to use a scatter plot to help me predict the gain of IBM-price 24 hours after an initial 24-hour-IBM-price-gain has been measured? This would be easy to do. Every 5 minutes when the market is open I collect the price of IBM, and then I look back in time and collect two prices for IBM. I get the price for 48 hours ago and the price 24 hours ago. Next, I calculate two gains, an older gain and a newer gain. Then, I create a scatter-plot with the older gain on the horizontal axis. If the newer gains depend on the older gains, this might be apparent via visual inspection of the scatter-plot. Obviously the gain of IBM-price 24 hours from now is dependent on many other variables. Since Pearson's correlation can only be used with 2 variables, it is not a very powerful tool for predicting future behavior of the price of IBM. What is needed is an algorithm which can analyze many variables at once. ## VectorA scatter-plot is made of points. And each point is made of two variables. A vector is similar to a point. A two dimensional vector, like a point, is made from two variables. A set of two dimensional vectors is easy to visualize. Just call them points and display them in a scatter-plot. A vector can be made from 3 variables or any number of variables.Sometimes when I discuss vectors and the variables which make them up, I call the variables "attributes" instead of variables. So, attribute is a synonym for variable. Typically when I specify a vector from attributes, I build it from attributes that are easy to collect or know and then make the last attribute the one which I want to predict. Here is an example of such a vector (a four dimensional vector): - 24 hour gain of IBM measured 10 hours ago
- 24 hour gain of IBM measured 5 minutes ago
- Slope of the 5-day moving average of IBM-price
- Gain of IBM between now and next 24 hours
Instead, I need to rely on a calculation like Pearson's correlation to help me. Unfortunately, the Pearson's correlation calculation assumes we have a set of two dimensional vectors. If we are working with vectors that have 3 or more dimensions and we want to find dependencies between the attributes in the vectors, we need an algorithm which is more powerful than Pearson's correlation calculation. ## Support Vector Machine (SVM)Support Vector Machine (SVM) is an algorithm I can use to quantify the dependency between the last attribute in a vector with the other attributes in the vector.And once this dependency is quantified I can use SVM to predict the value of the last attribute in a vector when the values of the other attributes are known. A link to more discussion about SVM is displayed below: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Support_vector_machine A scatter-plot which helps me visualize SVM at work is displayed below: It is showing a set of 16 vectors which are each 3 dimensional vectors. The first attribute in each vector corresponds to the x1 axis and the second attribute in each vector corresponds to the x2 axis. The third attribute, x3, in each vector is constrained to the values 0 or 1. If x3 is 1 it is displayed as a black circle else it appears as a white circle. This scatter-plot of three dimensional vectors, describes the general type of problem I want to solve: If I know the values of x1 and x2, can I predict the value of x3? The scatter-plot shows that when x1 is large and x2 is small, then x3 is a white circle and thus x3 is 0. And, when x1 is small and x2 is large, then x3 is a black circle and thus x3 is 1. SVM is designed to calculate the "best" way to measure the separation between the black circles and the white circles. The green line shows an attempt by SVM to measure the separation between the black circles and the white circles. The blue line also shows an attempt by SVM to measure the separation between the black circles and the white circles. It's obvious from the diagram that the blue line does a better job than the green line. Finally, the red line shows an optimal attempt by SVM to measure the separation between the black circles and the white circles. SVM practitioners refer to these lines as hyperplanes. Once an SVM-instance "knows" where the red-hyperplane resides, the algorithm can then make predictions. What is missing from the diagram is a vector displayed as a gray circle. I would color it gray to indicate that x1 and x2 are known but x3 is unknown and that I want to predict it. Once the gray-circle-vector is plotted, I would see if the vector is to the left of the red-hyperplane or to the right of it. If the vector lands on the left, I'd predict that x3 is 1 else I'd predict it is 0. SVM does not have eyes like I do. Instead it would measure both the direction and distance of the gray circle from the red-hyperplane. It would then use this measurement to predict the value of x3. |